FERI expects demand for alternative investments such as private markets (private equity, infrastructure, real estate) and hedge fund investments to continue rising strongly in the coming years. FERI currently manages alternative investments exceeding 18 billion euros, making it one of the largest providers in Germany.
For more than 20 years, we have been offering our clients individually tailored risk management solutions. Market risks are actively managed according to risk and return parameters jointly defined in advance.
In institutional asset management, FERI offers a broad range of asset management services for institutional investors. Our investment specialists have many years of experience in all asset classes and follow a multi-asset approach ranging from the development and implementation of individual investment strategies to quantitative risk management and control.
FERI expects demand for alternative investments such as private markets (private equity, infrastructure, real estate) and hedge fund investments to continue rising strongly in the coming years. FERI currently manages alternative investments exceeding 18 billion euros, making it one of the largest providers in Germany.
For more than 20 years, we have been offering our clients individually tailored risk management solutions. Market risks are actively managed according to risk and return parameters jointly defined in advance.
FERI is a byword for comprehensive, individual, transparent and sustainable advice and support for private clients. With over 30 years of experience, we offer private investors a wide range of asset management services.
For us, your requirements and needs are the basis for planning and optimising your asset structure. We always keep an eye on all legal and tax aspects and try to bring about improvements for you. As we work strategically on a long-term basis, we place a strong focus on comprehensive future and succession planning. Foundation consulting is also part of our strategic asset structuring.
The FERI family office is the strategy advisor for your assets. We offer services ranging from strategic asset planning, implementation consulting and results monitoring and controls, through risk management and asset protection strategies to sustainability consulting.
With the help of an asset liability management study, FERI can show you whether a financing system in its current form is sustainable and whether sufficient risk carriers are available or whether a modification of the system is advisable.
During the transition to a sustainable future, FERI guides and supports you in the implementation of a sustainability concept and in the implementation and further development of existing solutions.
FERI’s comprehensive support ranges from optimal asset allocation and investment planning to appointing managers, reporting, monitoring and controls. Clear structures always ensure well-documented decisions and transparent investments.
FERI carries out a cost check in three steps and determines the costs for mandates, depositaries and investment management. In times of persistently low interest rates, these are a key factor in the performance of any portfolio.
FERI uses the three-step manager check to assess the quality and performance of asset managers.
FERI evaluates current portfolios in terms of expected returns and risk and checks whether the allocation still meets the requirements regarding yield and available risk budget. In addition, FERI presents you with alternative portfolios that promise higher returns with the same risk or offer similar opportunities for returns with reduced risk.
To ensure the success of the investment, FERI provides guidance on risk management processes. These range from the preparation of a risk manual and risk inventory to regular reporting and commentary.
In order to identify the risk sources and their distribution in the portfolio of an investment, FERI prepares a risk sheet, which makes this information transparent and clear. It clearly shows what share of the overall risk is attributable to the individual investment funds, segments and asset classes.
FERI offers its clients the entire process of investment consulting and has continuously developed it since the 1990s. Thanks to our extensive experience, self-developed research and analysing tools and the access to around 250 employees in all areas of the investment process, we create significant added value for our clients through our range of consulting services.
Asset allocation – an overview of the latest market developments. FERI offers optimal, quantitative and qualitative support for decision-making, both in terms of strategic and tactical asset allocation.
FERI’s economic expertise is used in high-profile companies for operational planning and market research and in numerous banks for risk management from an industry perspective. We offer our clients the following services: worldwide economic data; global macro research; global economic, interest rate and currency forecasts; country and sector outlooks; FERI sector rating.
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Economics Update April 2024 - Interest rates and financial markets: between expectations and economic reality

Bad Homburg, 4/4/2024
by Axel D. Angermann
  • Strongly fluctuating interest rate expectations in recent months
  • Actual inflation trend, however, follows economic expectations
  • High uncertainty about interest rate trends over the rest of the year

The expectations of the financial markets regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decisions are a decisive factor for the development of long-term interest rates. An analysis of interest rate expectations over the past few months shows strong fluctuations, although the fundamental situation has not changed significantly: Six months ago, the markets believed that the Fed would leave its key interest rate at the level it had reached for quite some time and make a total of three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points over the course of 2024. Three months later, at the start of 2024, the first rate cut was expected as early as March and it was anticipated that a total of six or even seven rate cuts would follow by the end of the year. Now, at the start of the second quarter, market expectations are exactly where they were six months ago.

Fed's interest rate policy strictly data-based

Then as now, the US Federal Reserve's main objective is to reduce inflation to the targeted level of 2%. In doing so, it follows a data-based approach and always emphasizes the significant uncertainties regarding the achievement of the target. However, while the markets' interest rate expectations contain an element of speculation, inflation has largely developed in line with economic analyses - and was therefore by no means surprising: in October, the inflation rate, measured by the deflator of private consumer spending (the Fed's preferred inflation measure), was 3.4%; by February, this figure had fallen to 2.8%, which is still noticeably above the target value of 2%. There were both good theoretical arguments and ample empirical evidence for the expectation that the "last mile", i.e. reducing inflation from 3% to 2%, would be the most difficult to manage. On the one hand, base effects that were still favoring the decline in inflation in 2023 are coming to an end - the lowest-hanging fruit has now been harvested. Secondly, the continued positive overall economic demand is allowing many companies to increase prices. The latter is particularly evident in the services sector, with the result that annual price increases here still amount to 5%. The markets' euphoria over interest rate cuts in the meantime was based on continuing the favorable inflation data from October to December and ignoring existing risks. This approach was encouraged by positive comments from Fed Chairman Powell in December. The inflation data for January and February were a disappointment compared to the high expectations, but were in line with the fundamental economic findings overall. Both the rise in the yield on 10-year US government bonds in the fall to up to 5% and the rapid fall to 3.75% within a few weeks were therefore clearly exaggerations that were not covered by economic reality.

Slight recession or second wave of inflation?

The deflator for private consumer spending could actually fall to around 2.5% by the middle of the year, allowing the Fed to make the widely anticipated first interest rate cut. However, there are considerable uncertainties for the second half of the year: For the inflation rate to fall sustainably, overall economic demand would have to decline significantly, which would very likely result in a moderate recession in the US economy at the end of the year. The Fed is likely to react to this by cutting interest rates more sharply than the markets are currently expecting. In the alternative scenario of a continued robust economy, on the other hand, there is a threat of a renewed rise in prices and thus the feared second wave of inflation. In this case, the Fed could be forced to reverse its interest rate cuts, which would lead to a recession all the more. Regardless of which scenario ultimately prevails: Either way, it is unlikely that things will turn out as the markets currently expect.


About Axel D. Angermann

As Chief Economist of the FERI Group, Axel D. Angermann analyzes the economic, monetary policy and structural developments of all markets that are important for asset allocation. His analyses form the basis for the strategic orientation of FERI's multi-asset strategy, for which the CIO of the FERI Group, Dr. Marcel V. Lähn, is responsible. Angermann himself has been responsible for FERI's analyses and forecasts for the overall economy and the international financial markets since 2008. He joined the company in 2002 as a macro analyst. His professional career began at the Max Planck Institute for Economics and the German Chemical Industry Association. Angermann studied economics in Berlin and Bayreuth.

About FERI

The FERI Group, headquartered in Bad Homburg, Germany, was founded in 1987 and has developed into one of the leading multi-asset investment houses in the German-speaking region. FERI offers tailor-made solutions for institutional investors, family assets and foundations in the business areas:

Founded in 2016, the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute acts as a strategic research center and creative think tank within the FERI Group, with a clear focus on innovative analyses and method development for long-term aspects of economic and capital market research.

Together with MLP, FERI currently manages assets of €57 billion, including around €18 billion in alternative investments. In addition to its headquarters in Bad Homburg, the FERI Group has offices in Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Munich, Luxembourg, Vienna and Zurich.



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Marcel Renné

Chairman of the Board & CEO

Rathausplatz 8-10

D-61348 Bad Homburg

Axel Angermann