FERI expects demand for alternative investments such as private markets (private equity, infrastructure, real estate) and hedge fund investments to continue rising strongly in the coming years. FERI currently manages alternative investments exceeding 18 billion euros, making it one of the largest providers in Germany.
For more than 20 years, we have been offering our clients individually tailored risk management solutions. Market risks are actively managed according to risk and return parameters jointly defined in advance.
In institutional asset management, FERI offers a broad range of asset management services for institutional investors. Our investment specialists have many years of experience in all asset classes and follow a multi-asset approach ranging from the development and implementation of individual investment strategies to quantitative risk management and control.
FERI expects demand for alternative investments such as private markets (private equity, infrastructure, real estate) and hedge fund investments to continue rising strongly in the coming years. FERI currently manages alternative investments exceeding 18 billion euros, making it one of the largest providers in Germany.
For more than 20 years, we have been offering our clients individually tailored risk management solutions. Market risks are actively managed according to risk and return parameters jointly defined in advance.
FERI is a byword for comprehensive, individual, transparent and sustainable advice and support for private clients. With over 30 years of experience, we offer private investors a wide range of asset management services.
For us, your requirements and needs are the basis for planning and optimising your asset structure. We always keep an eye on all legal and tax aspects and try to bring about improvements for you. As we work strategically on a long-term basis, we place a strong focus on comprehensive future and succession planning. Foundation consulting is also part of our strategic asset structuring.
The FERI family office is the strategy advisor for your assets. We offer services ranging from strategic asset planning, implementation consulting and results monitoring and controls, through risk management and asset protection strategies to sustainability consulting.
With the help of an asset liability management study, FERI can show you whether a financing system in its current form is sustainable and whether sufficient risk carriers are available or whether a modification of the system is advisable.
During the transition to a sustainable future, FERI guides and supports you in the implementation of a sustainability concept and in the implementation and further development of existing solutions.
FERI’s comprehensive support ranges from optimal asset allocation and investment planning to appointing managers, reporting, monitoring and controls. Clear structures always ensure well-documented decisions and transparent investments.
FERI carries out a cost check in three steps and determines the costs for mandates, depositaries and investment management. In times of persistently low interest rates, these are a key factor in the performance of any portfolio.
FERI uses the three-step manager check to assess the quality and performance of asset managers.
FERI evaluates current portfolios in terms of expected returns and risk and checks whether the allocation still meets the requirements regarding yield and available risk budget. In addition, FERI presents you with alternative portfolios that promise higher returns with the same risk or offer similar opportunities for returns with reduced risk.
To ensure the success of the investment, FERI provides guidance on risk management processes. These range from the preparation of a risk manual and risk inventory to regular reporting and commentary.
In order to identify the risk sources and their distribution in the portfolio of an investment, FERI prepares a risk sheet, which makes this information transparent and clear. It clearly shows what share of the overall risk is attributable to the individual investment funds, segments and asset classes.
FERI offers its clients the entire process of investment consulting and has continuously developed it since the 1990s. Thanks to our extensive experience, self-developed research and analysing tools and the access to around 250 employees in all areas of the investment process, we create significant added value for our clients through our range of consulting services.
Asset allocation – an overview of the latest market developments. FERI offers optimal, quantitative and qualitative support for decision-making, both in terms of strategic and tactical asset allocation.
FERI’s economic expertise is used in high-profile companies for operational planning and market research and in numerous banks for risk management from an industry perspective. We offer our clients the following services: worldwide economic data; global macro research; global economic, interest rate and currency forecasts; country and sector outlooks; FERI sector rating.
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+49 (0) 6172 916-3600
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Economics Update January 2024 - Industry outlook 2024: German economy stuck in the doldrums

Bad Homburg, 1/8/2024
by Axel D. Angermann
  • Industry: Downward trend continues
  • Construction: Another significant drop in turnover despite good situation in civil engineering
  • Retail: Stabilization due to falling inflation
  • Digital economy: Strong growth and good prospects

The continuing weakness of the German economy is reflected in cautious forecasts for many economic sectors and industries for 2024. A weak global economy, rising interest rates and increasingly visible locational disadvantages mean that the German economy will continue to tread water in the coming year.

Industry with another real drop in turnover

Industry has been on a downward trend since 2018. Production figures are currently still around 6% below the 2019 level, although there is hope that an improved global economic environment will allow industrial production to grow again in the second half of the year. Overall, however, production in 2024 is likely to be around 2% below the level of 2023. The chemical industry will be able to stabilize at a low level after the drastic decline of recent years. The automotive industry must expect significant headwinds: The discontinuation of government subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles and strong international competition with growing market shares for Chinese manufacturers mean that production is expected to be around 3.6% lower than in 2023. The outlook for the mechanical engineering sector, which is suffering from the general weakness in investment, is also negative. More stable expectations regarding the framework conditions with which companies can plan in the medium term would be a key factor for an improvement in prospects here, but from today's perspective this is more of a wish than an observable reality.

Poor prospects for the construction industry

When the traffic light government took office two years ago, it promised to create 400,000 new residential units per year. This target is now a long way off. In fact, construction output has shrunk by 4 and 3.5 percent respectively in the past two years, and there is still no end in sight to the downturn. This applies in particular to property developers and project developers, whose business is suffering massively from higher interest rates and high construction costs. The simplification of building regulations, a comprehensive reduction in bureaucracy and the massive promotion of serial construction could provide a remedy here. The fact that the overall decline in the construction industry is not even higher is due to a good order situation for projects within the existing building stock and the positive development of civil engineering. However, the long-term prospects here depend largely on the reliable financing of road and rail construction projects.

Signs of hope for consumption

Falling inflation is combined with the expectation of moderate growth in private consumption in 2024. Against this backdrop, retail sales should at least stabilize after the significant decline in 2023. Travel agencies and tour operators saw strong growth in 2023 and should also perform well in 2024. Even after the tourism industry achieved a price-adjusted sales increase of 14% in 2023, sales are still more than 10% below the 2019 level. Further catch-up effects are therefore possible, even if the pace of growth should slow noticeably. In contrast, a decline in sales is expected in the hospitality industry, as the abolition of VAT relief will lead to higher prices and falling demand.

Digital economy decouples from general economic weakness

The sales trend in the IT sector and related industries remains positive: Turnover from information technology services is now a third higher than before the pandemic, while the increase for data processing and web portals is 19%. Both sectors are also likely to benefit from the ongoing pent-up demand for digitalization in 2024. However, what was said last year still applies: in order to fully exploit the potential of these sectors, more impetus is also needed from the political sphere. More commitment from municipalities and federal states in the digitalization of administrative processes and citizen services would be helpful here.

Table: Growth in Germany by sector

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


About Axel D. Angermann

As Chief Economist of the FERI Group, Axel D. Angermann analyzes the economic, monetary policy and structural developments of all markets that are important for asset allocation. His analyses form the basis for the strategic orientation of FERI's multi-asset strategy, for which the CIO of the FERI Group, Dr. Marcel V. Lähn, is responsible. Angermann himself has been responsible for FERI's analyses and forecasts for the overall economy and the international financial markets since 2008. He joined the company in 2002 as a macro analyst. His professional career began at the Max Planck Institute for Economics and the German Chemical Industry Association. Angermann studied economics in Berlin and Bayreuth.

About FERI

The FERI Group, headquartered in Bad Homburg, Germany, was founded in 1987 and has developed into one of the leading multi-asset investment houses in the German-speaking region. FERI offers tailor-made solutions for institutional investors, family assets and foundations in the business areas:

Founded in 2016, the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute acts as a strategic research center and creative think tank within the FERI Group, with a clear focus on innovative analyses and method development for long-term aspects of economic and capital market research.

Together with MLP, FERI currently manages assets of approximately €56 billion, including around €18 billion in alternative investments. In addition to its headquarters in Bad Homburg, the FERI Group has offices in Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Munich, Luxembourg, Vienna and Zurich.

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Media relations contact

Marcel Renné

Chairman of the Board & CEO

Rathausplatz 8-10

D-61348 Bad Homburg

Axel Angermann