Multi-asset outlook Part 5 – Commodities & precious metals 2026: Precious and industrial metals in demand, oil under pressure

Commodities and precious metals will remain an important component of a diversified portfolio for FERI in the new year. “Gold continues to justify an active allocation within a broadly diversified multi-asset portfolio,” says Thomas Gerner, Head of Systematic Equities, Precious Metals & Commodities at FERI. “Many investors and central banks are seeking to become less dependent on the US dollar,” explains Gerner. “This is compounded by doubts about the general stability and sustainability of the established monetary system.” These doubts are fueled by erratic US policy under President Donald Trump and geopolitical uncertainties. Further increases in government debt and attempts by central banks to devalue it through higher inflation rates are also likely to drive up the price of gold. “However, given the price levels that have now been reached, investors should factor in temporary periods of weakness.”  

Other precious metals—silver, platinum, and palladium—are valued more favorably in relation to gold and are likely to see price increases in its wake, explains Gerner. “However, periods of high volatility are not uncommon, which is why exposure here should only be undertaken in conjunction with strict risk management.” 

Little price potential for crude oil 

Crude oil was under pressure in 2025. The upside potential also appears limited in the new year. “We continue to expect weaker global growth momentum, so the price is unlikely to rise significantly,” Gerner concludes. He also points to the expansion of renewable energies and the ongoing electrification of transport, which are likely to dampen demand. “From a valuation perspective, crude oil prices are largely justified at their current level,” says Gerner. A moderate weighting of the commodity in the portfolio therefore remains a sensible geopolitical hedge. 

The situation is different for industrial metals, however. “The gap between supply and demand is significantly smaller than for crude oil,” says Gerner. Demand for copper, nickel, chromium, zinc, and aluminum is being driven by electromobility and ecological transformation. “Since the expansion of new production sites is a lengthy process, supply is unlikely to keep pace with the momentum of demand in the coming years,” predicts Gerner. Industrial metals therefore remain an interesting investment.