Economic research gives us a profound understanding of the market. Our economics team collects economic data from around the world and uses it to create comprehensive scenarios and forecasts. This enables us to offer business outlooks for 60 countries and to provide comprehensive insights into more than 525 industries in Germany.
We are convinced that economic data and structural factors (fundamentals) are of crucial importance for events on the capital markets. Active, independent economic research can thus forecast key parameters of capital market development.
The analyses and forecasts prepared by our economics team contribute significantly to the understanding of current market developments, allow the projection of short-term scenario developments, and thus form the basis of strategic asset allocation.
We also make the expertise of FERI’s economics team available to external interested parties. Economic research is used in high-profile companies for operational planning and market research and in numerous banks for risk management from an industry perspective.
You can find some of the latest results of our analyses here. For further information on our regular research services, please visit our client portal or simply contact us!
We are pleased to announce that the global macroeconomic survey provider Consensus Economics has awarded us the Consensus Economics Forecast Accuracy Award 2020 for our forecasts for Estonia and South Korea. The forecast accuracy was determined by examining GDP and consumer price forecasts submitted from January 2019 to December 2020 by all participants in the monthly survey. Consensus Economics then used Mean Absolute Error Analysis to compare these forecasts to actual results.
Each of the three megatrends - digitization, demography and disparity - will develop dynamically in the coming years. This alone will have noticeable consequences for societies and also for the capital markets. The intensive interactions between the three trends reinforce this dynamic and further increase their economic and social relevance.
The study aims to take a closer look at the "three D-Trends" and highlight the complex system of mutual interdependencies and feedback processes.
Click here to see our country, interest rate and industry reports as well as a large number of overview and evaluation tables and background information.Go to the FERI economics client portal
On the basis of our own comprehensive business, structural and capital market data, which are also available to our clients via the FERI data manager, the economic performance of 60 countries is continuously analysed and forecast using econometric approaches. The models used are updated at least quarterly to ensure a high degree of responsiveness to new developments.
Interest rate and currency forecasts are components of the macroeconomic models. For important regions such as the USA, the euro zone, Japan and the UK, central bank rates, money market indicators, government bond yields across all maturities and covered bond (German Pfandbrief) and corporate bond spreads are analysed and forecast in separate models.
The quantitative forecast results are available to our clients on our databases. Reports for each country and our monthly interest rate report contain the key forecast results as well as explanatory texts. In addition, a large number of standardised evaluation tables are available.
The FERI sector rating is used by a large number of financial institutions in back office functions and for the management of loan portfolios.
The sector rating reflects the industry-specific credit default risk (counterparty default risk). The quarterly rating of more than 500 sectors in Germany and 100 industries worldwide focuses on fundamentals and is based on FERI’s detailed sector forecasts, which in turn are based on macroeconomic outlooks and are notable for their consistency.
The reports for each industry contain the rating results and an explanation of the underlying forecasts. The profit and loss accounts at the industry level allow the comparison of specific company data with the respective industry benchmark. In addition, a large number of standardized evaluation tables and additional information are available.
Here are some examples of our dossiers (in German).
If you are interested, please do not hesitate to contact us.